Patriots vs. Bears odds, line, spread: Monday Night Football picks, prediction from NFL model on 146-107 run

The New England Patriots will try to ride the momentum after two convincing victories when they host the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. The Patriots (3-3) will return to Gillette Stadium after a resounding 38-15 victory in Cleveland last Sunday behind a strong performance from rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe. That followed a 29-0 victory against the Lions in Week 5. Now, New England will try to get coach Bill Belichick his 325th career victory, which would give him sole possession of second place on the all -time list behind Don Shula (347). The Bears (2-4) have lost three straight games but will come in rested off a 12-7 loss to the Commanders on Thursday Night Football in Week 6.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 pm ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Caesars Sportsbook lists New England as an 8.5-point favorite in its latest Patriots vs. Bears odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 40. Before locking in any Bears vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 146-107 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFL PickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up .

Now, the model has set its sights on Patriots vs. Bears and just locked in its picks and MNF predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Patriots:

  • Patriots vs. Bears spread: New England -8.5
  • Patriots vs. Bears over/under: 40 points
  • Patriots vs. Bears money line: Chicago +300, New England -385
  • Bears: Bears are 5-7-1 ATS after a loss since the start of last season
  • Patriots: Patriots are 3-1 ATS in their last four with a rest disadvantage
  • Patriots vs. Bears picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears

Why the Patriots can cover

New England shouldn’t have trouble stopping a Bears offense that is among the worst in the NFL. Chicago is gaining fewer than 294 yards per game (28th) and scores just 15.5 points (21st), and the Patriots defense won’t need to worry much about the passing game. Justin Fields has the worst competition percentage in the league at 55 percent and is sacked on almost 17 percent of his drop-backs (23 of 138). He has five interceptions compared to four TDs, so a strong Patriots secondary that has six interceptions will be ready if Fields looks downfield.

The favorite is 4-0 against the spread in the past four meetings, and the Bears have never won in New England (0-4). The Patriots should find room to run against a Chicago defense that ranks 29th against the run (163 yards). per game). New England is 10th in the NFL in rushing (131 yards per game), and Rhamondre Stevenson (448 yards) and Damien Harris (257) grind out yards. Stevenson had 161 yards against the Lions two weeks ago. See which team to pick here.

Why the Bears can cover

Underdogs are 54-37-2 against the spread this season, and underdogs of four or more points are 31-16 ATS. Chicago ranks second in rushing at almost 171 yards per game, and stopping the run is a weakness for New England. In fact, the Patriots are allowing 119 rushing yards per game, 17th in the NFL.

Khalil Herbert had a 64-yard run in Week 6, while Fields rushed for 88 yards and David Montgomery had 67. Herbert (402 yards) is pushing Montgomery (246) for carries and averages 6.4 yards per attempt. New England yields 4.7 per rush (22nd). The Chicago defense has playmakers, including linebacker Roquan Smith, who has two sacks, and safety Eddie Jackson, who has three interceptions and two forced fumbles. The Patriots have 11 turnovers, tied for 29th in the league. See which team to pick here.

How to make Patriots vs. Bears picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total. In fact, it’s calling for 46 combined points. It also says one of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s MNF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Bears vs. Patriots on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bears vs. Patriots spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.


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Jorge Oliveira

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