Opinion: Suddenly a glimmer of hope for Democrats
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In Arizona, Trump-backed candidates swept the GOP nominations for US Senate, attorney general and secretary of state. All of those candidates have embraced Trump’s unproven claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.
Despite their victories, the question remains: Can these primary candidates win over swing voters in a deep purple state like Arizona? Or will they simply double down on their base and fail to broaden their appeal in the general election in a year and midterm political environment that should be, by any historical standard, quite favorable to GOP candidates?
Put me down as skeptical that these candidates will even attempt to make a pivot toward swing voters.
But a different story played out in Michigan, where the courageous freshman Congressman Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach Trump just days after being sworn into Congress, fell to an election denying candidate, John Gibbs, a former Trump administration official who was backed by the former president.
Yes, politics can be a cynical and rough sport. I’m sure plenty of Democratic operatives are cackling over their success meddling in the GOP primary, but any smugness may turn into deep regret if Gibbs ends up prevailing in November. Those who play with fire often get burned.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade has energized a previously demoralized Democratic base and could galvanize college educated suburban women in particular. The GOP had better take note of this renewed Democratic intensity. If the GOP can’t win an abortion fight in Kansas, imagine the difficulty it will face in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Coupled with Trump’s stolen election obsession, mass shootings and a growing number of extreme GOP candidates in competitive races, the unpopularity of the Roe decision may mitigate Democratic losses in November, despite vulnerabilities on a number of other fronts (namely, the economy).
Democrats hope the cross currents of competing issues and interests have the potential to scramble the conventional midterm election narrative that rejects the party in power and checks the incumbent president. Tuesday’s election outcome in Kansas gives Democrats some hope, but it’s never wise to bet against history .
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